Poker tutorial 1.3: Easy way to estimate preflop chance

preflop chance

In this tutorial we will teach how to estimate the preflop chance in a showdown no matter which garbage hands are being used.

88 vs AJo wins 55% of the time.

22 vs T6o wins 53% of the time

As you can see any pair wins versus any two overcards. The difference in percentage isn’t that much. It is therefore possible to generalise a lot of other preflop chances of hands  as well.

AK vs Q9 is almost the same preflop chance as T7 vs  42, because in both cases one of the two lower cards need to pair the board, while the opponent doesnt pair the board. In both cases almost the same is needed to win for the underdog, therefore the preflop chance is almost the same.

This leads to the following  preflop chance:

AA vs Q9 but also JJvs 63               Pair versus two undercards:  85-88%

QQ vs AJ but also 88 vs A7             Pair versus one overcard 70% 

88vs AKo but also 22 vs T6o        Pair versus two overcards: 55% 

AAvs KK  but also 33 vs 22            Higher versus lower pair: 81% 

AQ vs KQ but also AJ vs AT            dominated by a higher card: 74%

AT vs KQ but also T3 vs 74            one overcard and one lower card:  60%

AQ vs KJ but also T8 vs 97            one overcard, but not one lower card: 63% 

AK vs Q9 but also T7 vs 42           two overcards, vs two lower cards: 65% 

+If one of both hands is suited, while the other isn’t, add 4% to the win chance of that hand

+If one of both hands is connected  while the other isn’t (with the possibility to get the straight in up and down direction, so not AK but 67) add +- 6% to the winrate

+ If one of both hands is a one-gapper, while the other has no aditional chance of making the straight: add 4% to the winrate.

+If one of both hands is a two gapper while the other has no aditional chance of making a straight add 2%

* Example AA vs 72 =88%, while AA vs 76s is having both suited and connected, which gives+ 4% and +6% chance, for a total of 22% winrate versus 12% for just two undercards.

If you know these 8 general examples and the 4 additional rules, you basically can estimate all other chances as well.

For instance estimate 88 vs A7s

This is  a 71% win -4% for flushchances is 67%for 88 to win.

Or AKs vs 76s

AKs is not a connector, because there is no up and down chance of the straight and   KA234 is not possible, however AKQJT and A2345 are possible, so let’s  assume it to be a two gapper for 2% extra chance of having the straight) So you use two overcards vs two lower cards example, which gives 65% and you subtract 4% to the lower hand (6% for the connector -2% for the two gapper for a 4% difference in favour of the connector), which gives 61% for the AKs, Both hands are suited, which will cancel eachother out, unles both hands have the same suit, inwhich AK will win if the flush shows up for a +4%.

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