Statistical blueprint of a poker pro. How to be unexploitable.

unexploitable poker

In the picture above you see the blueprint of winning players at a standard 9 player table. The green zones are showing the zones inwhich you are basically unexploitable by others. The white zones show the break even players. First we have a look at the values and after that we will generalize them to know the biggest leaks of players.


voluntary put money in pot (vpip) 15-29%

Preflop raise(PFR) : 11-19%


3Bet: 3-8%


Continuation bet: 60-82%

Aggression factor AF = (Raise% + Bet%) / Call%  : 2-5

Aggression frequency: 44-61%

Fold to continuation bet:  38-61%

Fold to flop bet:  51-65%


Continuation bet: 36-63%

Turn AF: 1-3

Turn AFq: 41-58%

Fold to turn bet: 43-66%


River AF: 1-2

River AFq:  37-55%

Fold to river bet: 41-65%


Attempt to steal: 24-39%

Fold blind to steal:  70-86%

3bet to steal attempt: 3-11%


Well known leaks based on statistics

1.Playing more then 29% of the hands (to much garbage) or less then 15% of the hands (to predictable).

2. When playing the correct handranges, you should raise preflop about 55- to 90% of the time when first in, or reraise when you have decent hands. The mistake you can make here is raise less then 50% of the time, which doesn’t set you up for a potential bluf later on if you miss the flop. You are giving the initiative to your opponents.

3. You should reraise within the following handranges:

3%:    99+, AQs+

8%:    88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+

So the mistake you can make is reraise more often then  8%.  You can also reraise against the wrong player in an early position. Another mistake is not to raise with the top hands like AA,KK,QQ,JJ and AK. When you go to the flop with to many other players these hands get way lower winrates. If you go to the flop with 8 other players your AA wins only like 30% of the time.

4. If you raised preflop (which you should do ~70% when first in), you should bet the flop 60-82% of the time. This is a lot, given the fact that most flops miss most hands. In general you hit only like 32% of the flops (with hands like AK).  Given this fact you should bet much more often then the amount of times you hit the flop. Playing to passively on the flop (betting not often enough when you missed the flop) is one of the biggest leaks. You should continue the story you told preflop: “you have the best hand”.

5. If your opponent places a continuation bet, you should fold 38- to 61% of the time. The amount of time you call or raise is larger then the amount of time you hit the flop (32%), however you will call with decent draws when you get enough pot odds or implied odds. The biggest leak is to fold way to often, or call without any draws.

6.  In general you want to call or raise 35 to 50% on the flop. A well known leak is to overplay low percentage hands like small pocket pairs when you missed the flop, inside straightdraws (only 4 outs) and other low percentage hands.

Postflop play

7. You want to get less aggressive during the turn and the river then you where on the flop. The reason is that your opponent called a bet on the flop, which usually means a hand or a decent draw. You want to fold 40-60% of the time against turn and river bets if your opponent has shown strenght. A leak would be to keep calling your opponent with mediocre hands (like second pair).

8. After betting the flop you want to bet the turn as well like 36-63% of the time. If you check on the turn you are giving your opponent a chance to make a bluff and steal the hand. A leak is to be to passive on the turn, or way to aggressive.

9. Your optimum aggression frequency on the turn and the river is about 50%. Given the fact that you hit the flop like 32% of the time you are semibluffing with draws 18% of the time after the turn and the river your hand may  improve and you bluf less and less. Never bluffing on the turn and river is a mistake though.

Stealing and folding the blinds

10. Blinds are a very big leak even for some of the best players, because they think in terms of pot odds and call way to often. In general you should fold the blinds 70 to 86% of the time against a raise even if you believe your opponent is trying to steal the blinds.

11. You should try to steal the blinds with about 24 to 39% of the hands. This means you can raise quite a lot of hands from both the dealer button and the cut off, simply because you are in position the rest of the hand. You can raise any ace, almost any suited king and some mediocre hands like J6 suited,  J9 to K9 ofsuit or 43s, 22+,64s,  or 84suited even. Not trying to steal the blinds is a mistake as well as trying to steal to often. Do note that you should protect your weak hands by continuation betting often enough on the flop.

12. If you are on the blinds you want to defend your blinds against a wide range of hands the button might have. You 3-bet any steal attempt if you have like the top 11% of hands ( or better). This includes hands like:

77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+

3-Betting to often to protect your blinds  is a leak.


13. The best players go to showdown 20- to 25% of the time with a showdown winrate of 55%. This  percentage means that they actualy fold top pair top kicker some of the time. The top 20% of hands contains hands like two pair and higher. Lower hands should usually not go to a showdown, it is better to place a bluff somewhere during the hand when you sence weakness, or just fold when your opponent is to aggressive. The hands you call with are also dependent on the nature of the board and your opponent.

The biggest leak on the river is to be much to aggressive. You should assume your opponent to have something and you only bluf in situations when you believe that there is a decent chance that your opponent might fold.


If you are playing within the ranges shown, you are unexploitable.

Players who are playing way out of these ranges are exploitable.  However there is a danger in exploiting your opponent’s mistakes, because you may become exploitable yourself. For instance your opponents are folding 80% of the time on the flop. You start betting the flop 100% of the time. Now you are exploitable by your opponent, because we know statistically you only have hit the flop 32% of the time, which means you are currently bluffing on the flop 68% of the time, which gives reason to raise or checkraise you more often inwhich case you fold with a loss much more often then you should.

The information given was for 9 player tables, however there are also comparable stats for 6 handed or heads up poker. The biggest difference are the starting hands you can play and raise with.



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